Oh, good Lord…it’s been sooo long! So many years of waiting for things to get better. Or at least a tiny bit less crazy in the Seattle-area real estate market. It seems that maybe, just maybe, there’s finally a silver lining.
Is it Real?
I’m by no means a statistician. Nor do I have a crystal ball. (As previously mentioned in this blog). But from what I can tell from the ground and what’s being whispered by others in the business (specifically my lender and escrow friends), it seems the market is softening ever so slightly. Of course, it could just be the usual summer slump. But from the looks of the stats over the last few years vs June 2018, the number of new listings that came on the market this June took an encouraging jump while the voracious pool of buyers may finally have tired. Or at least become more wary.
As you can see from this chart, the peak of the 2018 market looks like it will stick at May with 1,761 new listings and 1,714 in June (King County, all property types).
The interesting part (well, so interesting as real estate statistics can get) is the number of pending sales in June: 1,248. Bear in mind that in 2017, there were only 138 more homes listed than went pending in June and even fewer (just 50!) in 2016. Hindsight being 20/20, it’s encouraging to see a little more breathing room for buyers after such a sustained frenzy.
Here to Stay?
The tricky part of trying to predict what will or won’t happen in real estate–or any sort of market, I suppose–is you can’t tell for sure what’s happening until it’s done. BUT we do have some other less precise indicators to help us real estate professionals tell which way the wind is blowing.
- Offer review: You know how the last 3 years or so, all the listings came on with that “reviewing offers on such and such date” notice, and buyers had to scramble to book a pre-inspection if they even wanted to play the game? That’s started to become MUCH less common, just over the last few weeks. More and more listings are coming on the old-fashioned way: reviewing offers upon receipt. In other words, early birds (and quick agents) get the house. Bidding wars may still happen, of course. But then it’s more like, max of 2 or 3 offers. Not so much 20-30. Or even 10-15.
- Requesting feedback & stale listings: It’s been a common illness among home sellers the last few years. You know, the ol “We can ask whatever we want and some buyer will pay it, because there’s NOTHING ELSE OUT THERE!” And for the most part, it was true. For a time. Until buyers either got sick of it and stopped looking, or began looking elsewhere. (Like Kitsap, Snohomish, and Pierce counties). And now, we see a bunch of homes sitting on the market for weeks or even *gasp* MONTHS. Those, dear buyers, are ripe for offers of a more reasonable nature. Easiest way to know? I’ve been getting a lot more requests from listing agents for feedback on home that I’ve shown. In hotter times, listing agent’s didn’t bother since things were moving so fast.
What It Means
I wish I could say with certainty that the winds have changed and it will be a buyer’s market soon. Or at least more balanced. I’m not going that far out on a limb. But I will say that I’m feeling encouraged. No, no…prices aren’t going to go down.
What do you think, this is 2010 or something? Not so much. But at least we should start to see a more sane flow. Where a property comes on the market, a buyer can check it out, have a normal inspection, NOT waive every single contingency, and work out the results of the inspection in a much less hurried and more thoughtful way. In the end, it’s better for everyone. (Buyers tend to freak out a lot more easily when they feel they’ve been rushed to make a deal and/or given up all their contingencies to close on a house that may have problems that weren’t identified because there wasn’t enough time! Also, no one likes to feel they’ve overpaid).
Hang In There, House Hunters
Your time will come. Hopefully sooner than later! In the meantime, reach out if you have questions about the local area, the market, or the best/worst times to catch a ferry to Bainbridge or Bremerton. 😉