Back-to-school time is normally the second-busiest market of the year here in the Puget Sound area. Get the kids settled, and then it’s off to the races for those who are looking to move.
Of course, this year is different, for sooooo many reasons. The biggest, of course, are the impacts of COVID-19 on every facet of our lives. Everything seems to be in a state of upheaval and chaos, yet the real estate market has stayed as strong–and hot–as ever here in the PNW.
In the Beginning — A Quick Recap
January/February: COVID-19 was just starting to get rolling around here. But no one knew it yet. Typically, home buyers are just poking their heads out and starting to look at this time, warming up to the typically-busy spring market.
March: Everything hit the fan. The market. Just. Stopped. Transactions already underway were able to close, with the financial sector being considered essential. But for a few weeks, no one was doing any new buying/selling until the new rules came out and we were able to get back to work.
April/May: All that pent-up demand from early spring was set loose, and with a new motivation for many. Cooped up at home, buyers were suddenly now looking for more space to use as a home office, gym, school room, etc. Also in high demand: more outdoor space.
June/July: Waterfront properties became SUPER hot as buyers (and everyone else) flocked to the water. Multi-million dollar homes on the water, which normally take months to sell, began flying off the market in days. Or less. More than a few sellers just up and moved to Montana and other less-populated locations.
August/September: Prices flattened a bit as more potential buyers were outside, getting their last doses of sunshine and gearing up for online school.
Winter is Coming
What will Winter 2020 bring? November, December, and January are (not surprisingly) the bottom of the market here in the PNW. Grey, wet, and cold weather tends to keep the tire-kickers and lookie-loos inside. Only the hardy and motivated venture out to make a move. This year, I think, will be different.
My Crystal Ball Says…
The holidays will look a lot different this year! Most likely, gatherings will be limited, or not happen at all. No holiday office parties, “Friendsgivings”, and huge gatherings with extended family. Less distractions as we have few cookies and pies to bake, and fewer gifts to purchase. So what does that mean for the housing market?
More time to go shopping for the next home! Renters will continue to take advantage of screaming low interest rates if they are ready to enter the market. Families will be feeling the squeeze even more, stuck at home in winter with kids in virtual school and many parents continuing to work from home.
The thought of more space will continue to push more and more people over the edge into “time to move” territory. Face it– many people who may have been thinking this is the “forever home” have reeeeeally been re-examining priorities this year.
Perhaps some of the building boom will provide additional inventory. More seniors will move out of single-family homes and into 55+ or assisted living facilities, and some families will continue to leave the city in favor of more space out of state. Unfortunately, I don’t think this means enough people will move to Idaho and Montana to really make a significant dent in the supply of homes for sale, but you never know.
I think inventory will continue to be tight throughout the winter. But at least, if we are lucky, prices will continue to dip slightly and/or flatten, providing a bit of breathing room.
But Won’t It Crash?
For those of you expecting a huge meltdown like 2009, that was a totally different beast. If and when there’s fallout from COVID (mortgage defaults, investors selling off rental properties, etc.), it will come later in 2012 or early 2022. The foreclosure process is not a quick one! It will be a good year or so, at least, before we really see an increase in foreclosed properties hitting the market.
Unlike the 2009 crash, this won’t be so sudden, either. I see it coming as a steady stream. Hopefully a small one! Of those who have been struggling throughout the COVID pandemic, many will come out the other side with a new job and their home. Others will not fare so well, and may go through the foreclosure process, but that doesn’t mean all of them will lose homes.
Got a Question?
There are a lot of factors at place in these strange times! If you are wondering about the current value of your Bainbridge Island, Poulsbo, or Kingston home, contact Megan now. Thinking of buying a home in North Kitsap this year? Let’s talk now and put you in the best position possible when the time comes.